Wednesday, March 26, 2025

This Was Predictable

It should come as no surprise that school districts all around the state are facing budget cuts. Des Moines cut $14 million from its budget during this school year and continues to have discussions about future budget limitations. Dubuque recently announced the closure of one of it's elementary schools and is poised to make even more budget cuts. Cedar Rapids is planning a $12 million reduction; and in our own backyard, Waterloo has announced a $10 million cut. 

As some of the largest school districts in the state located in metropolitan media markets, it is not surprising these are top of fold stories. For the most part, these budget cuts are due to enrollment decreases caused by private school vouchers. Now, I'll concede the point that school districts must staff their programs to match enrollment patterns. But as I have argued multiple times, it is never an equivalent tradeoff. In other words, a 20 student drop in student enrollment may well suggest the elimination of a teaching position, but that 20 student drop didn't occur in just one grade level. The by-product will be larger class sizes, the dilution of support staff to work with those students, and the elimination of programs. 

While the largest school districts in the state grapple with the implementation of what can only be described as austere budget cuts, smaller rural school districts have had to contend with decreasing enrollment for years. In our own conference, 10 out of the 14 districts represented had a decrease in enrollment averaging 17.04 students from last year to this year, and it isn't a 1 year anomaly. This is a pattern. If it were a 'one off' perhaps a more nuanced strategy of budget reduction could be implemented. But when you are shedding 20+ students a year it becomes a much more serious issue. It simply becomes unsustainable. That is what happened in the Orient-Macksburg Community School District. Located in southwest Iowa, the residents there voted to dissolve at the end of the current school year. 

Implementing a strategy that reduces expenditures in light of a decrease in enrollment is as obvious as the sun coming up tomorrow (as painful as it may be). Public school funding in Iowa is tied directly to enrollment, so the fewer students that are enrolled means less revenue. The remedy is to cut the budget. Granted, saying it and doing it are two completely different things. These decisions and discussions become quite emotional, particularly when a favorite teacher loses their job or a popular program is eliminated. 

But decreasing enrollment isn't the only reason why school districts are cutting budgets right now. Truth be told, the fact that annual growth in per pupil cost (aka SSA) isn't keeping up with inflation is another reason. And with the rate being set artificially low year after year, it only exacerbates the issue. When you compound decreasing enrollment on top of low supplemental state aid, well the outcome is quite predictable, and exponentially more challenging. 

Think about this. Currently, the general assembly is locked in a stalemate between the House and Senate about how much to increase the state cost per pupil for the next school year. Set aside the fact that the legislatively mandated deadline for doing so has long since passed, and that there is no mechanism or penalty for this abdication of responsibility. The Senate insists the rate should increase by 2%. The House insists 2.25%. Either way you slice it, this is below the the current CPI rate, or 'cost of living adjustment'. Both legislative chambers argue this is what the state can afford. Considering they blew an enormous hole in the budget when all the private school students were added to the state cost per pupil calculations-its no wonder. Furthermore, the states latest revenue estimations suggest a $1.2 billion decrease in revenue between FY 24 and FY 26. Yes, this was not only predictable: it was forewarned.

Frankly, I think 2% is the best we can hope for.

Consider a scenario where enrollment is exactly the same from one year to the next. That amount of budget growth (2%) doesn't even keep up with inflation, which means the only remedy is to cut expenditures. In Hudson's case, [if we had] flat enrollment this would equate to an increase of $127,723. To put that in perspective, our general fund expenditures next year are expected to top $12.5 million. That won't cover the fixed costs needed to manage the budget, let alone grow programs. Luckily, Hudson has growing enrollment so we are in a much better position than most. 

The point is this: a school district's enrollment grows or they will have to cut their budget. 

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