Certified Enrollment

October 1 is the official 'Count Day' in schools across the state where we get our first glimpse of enrollment and begin to solve for base funding for the fiscal year set to begin on July 1 (FY 2028). However, during the last legislative session, a second 'Count Day' was added, which will happen on January 15. These two numbers will be averaged, and that number will become the base number in the finance formula. The reason this second count day was added, at least according to the legislature was to ensure more precise funding. The reality for Hudson though, and for many schools like us is that it will result in a decrease in enrollment, and by proxy funding. Particularly when considering the fact that first semester ends with the calendar year and those seniors who graduate at mid-term will not be on the second count.

Notwithstanding that fact, our certified enrollment is down this year by 10.14 students (that's before we factor in those handful of students who are graduating at midterm). At roughly $8,200 per student, that is roughly $91,000 in funding we'll need to address in the next budget cycle. Truth be told, this was unexpected. When asked to speculate, the primary theory rests largely on economic reasons. Anecdotally, there are houses currently on the market in Hudson that, a few years ago simply would not be. Coupled with the rising costs of consumer goods, increases in gasoline, and ubiquitous school choice options, it probably shouldn't be too surprising. Nonetheless, the next budget cycle will undoubtedly require some adjustments. 

However, in the final analysis it is far too soon to be contemplating the FY 2028 budget. Remember, certified enrollment considers resident students only: not open enrolled. When considering the overall number of students served, it is essentially a 'wash'. Yet the reason we perseverate so much on certified enrollment is that it is much more stable. Open enrolled students tend to wax and wane throughout the school year, and as such the funding is a bit more fluid. So then, when considering preschool through twelfth grade enrollment, the district is currently serving 924 students, which is the same as last year. Kindergarten through twelfth grade enrollment on October 1 was 874 students, which is below expectations and 3 fewer than one year ago. 

Again, certified enrollment describes students with a physical address of Hudson and includes students who attend school in Hudson or open enroll to another public-school district. Our certified number is down 10.14 students from last year. The basic calculation is the number of resident students attending in the local district, plus the number of resident students attending another public-school district. The BEDS count, on the other hand considers students who are served in the school district. The basic calculation here is resident students attending our school district, plus those who are open enrolled into Hudson. In this case, there is a net decrease of 2.84 students over last year from 880.74 to 877.90. This result was unexpected.

The number of students open enrolling out of Hudson has also increased from 71.30 to 78.30 with most choosing Cedar Falls (34). The second spot belongs to Gladbrook-Reinbeck, with (12), followed by (11) participating in an online option and (11) in Waterloo. The remaining OE out students are attending Dike-New Hartford, Union, or Iowa Falls.

There are 198 students open enrolling into Hudson, compared to 184 from a year ago. Waterloo continues to lead, with (122) students open enrolling into Hudson, up from (117) a year ago. Our data suggests (20) students taking advantage of the ESA program, down from (21) from a year ago. The primary takeaway is that a net positive of 81 students (those open enrolled in minus those open enrolled out) is a very good sign for the district.  

We had 23 students who were enrolled last year but have subsequently transferred out or moved to another school district. This compares to 41 students who moved out last year and would suggest a more transient population of learners.

Elementary grade levels remain the largest, with 4 sections per grade level from grades K-4. As the district plans for the 2027-2028 school year, it would be wise to staff the school appropriately to match enrollment. In so doing, opportunities to move some of the smaller 4 section elementary grade levels to 3 sections should be considered. Previous projections did not anticipate this turn in enrollment, but the good news is there is time to make course corrections prior to creating fiscal stress on the district.

Enrollment projections are calculated based on a cohort methodology that uses a five-year rolling average to determine kindergarten size. Over the last 5 years, the kindergarten has averaged 77 students; while in the last 10 years it has averaged 67. With this methodology, estimates from prior years are left static since there is no algorithm to accurately predict transfers in or out of the district. If these projections were come to fruition, we will reach our high-water mark of 962 in 2031-2032. Even so, it is entirely reasonable, and could be argued that the kindergarten projections are overstated.  

To read more about our enrollment and see future trends, please visit the 'About Us' page of our website. 

Salty, Seasoned, but Still Voting

For about the first half of my career as superintendent, I was pretty active politically. During the legislative session, I would make multiple trips to Des Moines and advocate for our public schools. In fact, I can point to a few policy changes were impacted due to the advocacy of my colleagues and I. There were even times that I was asked to testify about a particular piece of legislation, or a legislator would give me a call to ask for an explanation, or impact of a particular policy proposal that was being debated. Heck, I can even remember a time when then state legislator and House Education Committee Chair Walt Rogers called me kind of late one night, in the middle of a floor debate, to ask a clarifying question before he voted. 

Then, one year everything changed. My phone calls stopped being answered, and interactions became adversarial. Issues were being brought up that I had never heard of before; issues that were contortions of the truth, steeped in conspiracy, or complete fabrications. Attempts to clarify positions or demonstrate the effects of policy were either ignored or looked upon with disdain. I had become convinced that we didn't really need a legislative body. No. We needed a governor, someone to run the House; and someone to run the Senate. They were just going to do what their party leaders told them to do anyway. At least if they wanted to win their next election. So? I backed off and have remained absent from the state capitol. In fact, when we have local legislative roundtables or a legislator planned for one of our meetings, I almost always have a 'scheduling conflict'. I know, believe me; I know. None of our professional organizations like to hear what I'm saying. 'Keep at it!', they will say. 'Your voice matters. They really need to hear from you'. Funny. It hasn't, and it doesn't feel like it has in quite some time. In the Navy we had a pejorative for the concept of doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. I won't repeat it here, but suffice to say: it's pretty salty.

Salty. I suppose that is what I am: well seasoned. I've been sitting in this chair for quite some time. Truth be told, there are far fewer years ahead of me than behind me. While I am not ready to throw in the towel yet, what I will do is focus my energy and efforts on what I can do, and what we can do together to make our school district, and the experiences our students have in their time with us better and more productive. If I see an opening where I feel my voice may make a difference, I'll take that shot. But please excuse me for not holding my breath. 

Yet for all that sourness there is one thing that, no matter what, I will still do in two weeks: VOTE!

At a recent superintendent meeting I reminded my colleagues that come January there will be a new sheriff in town. That stated, regardless of who wins any of these races, we have some pretty serious headwinds facing our state right now. Whoever controls the levers of power in Des Moines will have some difficult issues to tackle. It is important then, that we choose wisely. It is paramount that we avoid being distracted by nonsense. And the endless commercials we are seeing on television right now are designed to flood the zone with garbage meant to confuse us. 

Perhaps the top of the list is the budget. Were you aware that for the last two years, we have taken in a billion dollars less than we have spent? This fiscal year, the projected net revenue for the State of Iowa is $8.54 billion against appropriations of $9.645 billion. Comparatively speaking, that is a pretty significant hole in the budget. We have been filling this hole with our reserves, and if my math is correct that will likely run out in a couple of years. Now, there were deliberate policy decisions made that created this deficit. Tax reform is part of it. The school of thought is that we have never had a revenue problem in Iowa: we have had a spending problem. Alright then, to correct this problem means that we need to reduce spending. Fasten your seatbelts, because that comes in the form of services to Iowans. The other side of the coin suggests that changes to tax policy will spur economic growth, surpassing the billion dollar deficit. Anyone buying that? Folks, that dog don't hunt. The math doesn't work. 

The second, and by no means insignificant jam we have gotten ourselves into with the state budget is the voucher program. It took a billion dollars just to ramp this thing up. Now, it is a $400 million per year expenditure. All for a program with little accountability, the ability to pick and choose which students attend, and to pay tuition for families who would have paid it anyway. I have discussed this issue ad nauseum in this column so will keep in relatively short here. Furthermore, at this point it is probably not possible to put the toothpaste back in the tube. But we can means test it; and, if the idea is competition--at least make everyone play by the same rules.

If the state budget isn't at the top of the list, then water quality and Iowa's cancer rate should be. To this point, the answer to water quality appeared to be removing nitrate monitors in Iowa's water streams and cutting cancer research at the University of Iowa. Pretending there isn't a problem I suppose is a strategy. Not a great one, but a strategy nonetheless. I can tell you this from personal experience: watching and walking with someone through cancer treatments is absolutely as bad as it can get. As a bystander and caregiver, knowing that you are at the mercy of a treatment plan that at times seems worse than the disease itself; well, enough said. We have to get this under control in our state. Looking the other way isn't working.

Since this is an educational blog, I'll opine briefly (since this is already getting a bit long). Our candidates have very different views on education, so I'll just say this: when we talk about 'creating efficiencies' or 'innovative practices', to me that is just code for budget cuts. We've been lucky here in Hudson because of enrollment growth. The rate at which our enrollment has grown has surpassed a decade of chronic underfunding. But here is something unexpected for us: enrollment is down this year, and with a second count date now part of the calculus with mid-year graduates coming off the roles it will be down even further. As I have shared countless times, the enrollment number is a key variable in determining the school budget. When the enrollment drops, so too does funding. Yes, this decrease was unexpected, but when I look across the landscape of the AEA which we are part of: it is unsurprising. While all the data has not yet been collected, enrollment across Central Rivers AEA is down more than 558 students. 

I would also be remiss if I didn't mention Amendment 1. For this one, you'll want to turn the ballot over to vote on this constitutional amendment. If adopted by voters, the amendment would require a 2/3 majority in both chambers of the state legislature in order to raise the state income tax, a very high bar. A mere 17 people: 17 people can simply take their ball and go home. There are more than 3 million people who live in this state. Keep this in mind. A few years back, the state implemented a flat tax rate of 3.9% across the board. At face value, this may seem reasonable. The efforts to reduce the tax burden on all of us are commendable, and took a great deal of political capital to execute. Yet, one must wonder if it is a good idea to take a tool away from a future legislative body. We already have a billion dollar budget deficit. If we limit income tax, that leaves only sales tax and property tax. And we just finished property tax reform, so...

Those are but a few of the issues that will be at the top of my mind when I head to the polls here in two weeks. I may not spend a lot of time engaging with our legislators. I may be salty. I may be seasoned. But, I'm a lifelong Iowan who currently lives within 50 miles of where I grew up, and I'm not planning on going anywhere. I like living here and this stuff matters to me, and it matters to future generations. You can bet that I'll be sure to make my voice heard at the ballot box on November 3. I hope you do too!