Each October 1, school districts in Iowa begin the process of certifying enrollment with the state. In it's most basic form, we are counting all the residents of our district that are attending school either here or elsewhere. Whether they are open enrolled out, and if so where. If they are in a private school. Home school. If they are dually enrolled. If they belong to another school district but attend our school district under open enrollment. While this work begins on October 1, it doesn't truly finish until October 15th when we certify the results. This includes reconciling our records and data with all the other school districts that may have Hudson students attending elsewhere, or students from other districts attending here at Hudson. If it sounds complicated, it is.
When considering preschool through twelfth grade enrollment, the district is currently serving 932 students. Factoring in dual enrolled and part time students, enrollment tops 938. However, for the purposes of this summary our focus will be on K-12 full time students.
Certified enrollment is up approximately 52 students from last year. Certified enrollment in Iowa public school districts is the sum total of resident students living in the school district. The basic calculation is the number of resident students attending in the local district, plus the number of resident students attending another public-school district. The BEDS count, on the other hand considers students who are served in the school district. The basic calculation in this case, is resident students attending our school district, plus those who are open enrolled into Hudson. Our data shows a net increase of 34.65 students over last year from 841.99 to 876.64, or a 4.11% enrollment increase. Our official numbers track higher than projected, which suggested K-12 enrollment this year of 842.
The number of students open enrolling out of Hudson has also increased from 66 to 69 with just over half choosing Cedar Falls (36). The second spot belongs to Gladbrook-Reinbeck, with (10) Hudson residents attending that district, followed by (9) in Waterloo. The number of students open enrolling into online academies is another popular option, with (8) students spread over (3) schools. There are 170 students open enrolling into Hudson, compared to 186 from a year ago. Waterloo continues to lead, with (114) students open enrolling into Hudson, down from (130) a year ago. Our data suggests (5) students taking advantage of the ESA program, with no accurate comparability number from a year ago. The primary takeaway is that a net positive of 100 students (those open enrolled in minus those open enrolled out) is a very good sign for the district.
We had 39 students who were enrolled last year but have subsequently transferred out or moved to another school district. This compares to 32 students who moved out last year and would suggest a more transient population of learners.
Our second-grade class remains the largest at (87) students, compared to (87) one year ago. This (4) section grade level can be attributed to the influx of open enrolled students from two years ago. At this time, the district operates four sections of grade K-2 and anticipates the four-section grade level pattern to continue matriculating across the district. Even so, a deliberate decision has been made to cap open enrollment. This is being done purposefully in order to accommodate the increase in resident ‘attending’ students. The strategy being employed will be to counterbalance residential enrollment with open enrollment. As residential enrollment increases, open enrollment will decrease; which is illustrated in our current enrollment data. This is an important and often overlooked fact when considering the growth that Hudson is experiencing. Think about this: we have 49 more residents attending Hudson school this year, while at the same time 14 less open enrolled. You should anticipate the open enrollment figure will continue to decline as the residential number climbs.
Enrollment projections are calculated based on a cohort methodology that uses a five-year rolling average to determine kindergarten size. Over the last 5 years, the kindergarten has averaged 70 students; while in the last 10 years it has averaged 62.8. Based on both residential enrollment growth coupled with open enrollment, a projection of 70 seems to be right, particularly since open enrollment from Waterloo is not anticipated to drop off precipitously in the short term. With this methodology, estimates from prior years are left static since there is no algorithm to accurately predict transfers in or out of the district. If these projections were come to fruition, we will reach our high-water mark of 920 in 2029-2030. Previous attempts have been made to account for residential growth, and assuming 1.9 children per household evenly distributed could push K-12 enrollment into the mid-950 range by 2028-2029. However, I would exercise extreme caution when making this assumption and at the same time understand potential growth could be significant.
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