Projecting Growth

Our enrollment has rebounded after last year when we saw a pretty significant drop due largely to COVID. With a headcount of 765 in our buildings, you have to go all the way back to 2006-2007 to see a higher number: when that year the headcount was 788. The biggest reason for the gain we are seeing this year has to do with open enrollment from Waterloo. Absent that, our headcount likely would have been stable to even slightly down. Now, when I talk with you about enrollment, there are two separate terms that are used, and both mean something quite different. Certified enrollment refers to resident students with a Hudson address. It includes those who are attending school in Hudson and those who are attending school elsewhere, usually open enrolled to another school district. Headcount on the other hand refers to the number of students who are actually attending school in Hudson. It includes both resident students (attending) and those who are open enrolling into the district. 

Certified enrollment is down approximately 7 students. However, our headcount count is up by 34, from 731-765. This represents a net increase in enrollment of 5% Our metric of comparability would be the opening day enrollment, which stood at 772. It is not unusual for enrollment to fluctuate from the opening day enrollment to the day that we certify that number on October 15. The fact is, enrollment tends to be rather fluid with students moving in and out of the district all throughout the school year!

The number of students open enrolling out of Hudson has remained relatively stable, with 45 open enrolling out of Hudson, which is one less from last year. We have 136 open enrolling into Hudson, compared to 100 last year. Again, the large increase in open enrollment to Hudson is attributable to a change in law that eliminated school districts’ voluntary desegregation plans absent a court order. With a net positive of 91 students, this is a good metric for the district.

We had 68 students who were enrolled last year but have subsequently transferred out or moved to another school district. This compares to 40 students who moved out last year and could suggest a more transient population of learners. Of these 68 students, some have elected to homeschool, which obviously has a negative impact on our enrollment. It is also worth noting that 7 students withdrew at parental request: all of which are considered ‘young for their class’ kindergarten students who we assume will be with us next year. Note: this is one of the reasons we are considering transitional kindergarten. For more on this topic, please refer to my October 13th post, 'Transitional Kindergarten?'.

At the same time though, we have a larger kindergarten class this year compared to what we had anticipated. This larger class can be attributed to open enrollment, with 15 kindergarten students open enrolling into the district. 

Of the 45 students who are open enrolled out, 28 of them are open enrolled to Cedar Falls while 4 are open enrolled to Gladbrook-Reinbeck. The balance of our open enrollees [largely] are participating in online school programs at Clayton Ridge, CAM, and Iowa City. 29% of those open enrolled to Cedar Falls have a Cedar Falls address at the time of original application. This address, while in the Hudson Community School District is on the northern border of the district and actually within the city limits of Cedar Falls.

The largest number of students open enrolling into Hudson comes from Waterloo: 73 students. This is followed by Gladbrook-Reinbeck at 20, Cedar Falls at 21 and Union at 11. The remaining students are attending from Dike-New Hartford, Grundy Center, and North Tama.

Enrollment projections are calculated based on a cohort methodology that uses a five year rolling average to calculate and estimate kindergarten size. Over the last 5 years, the kindergarten has averaged 57 students; while in the last 10 years it has averaged 56. Therefore, a projection of 57 seems to be right particularly since open enrollment from Waterloo is open due to the aforementioned change in state law. With this methodology, estimates from prior years are left static since there is no algorithm to accurately predict transfers in or out of the district. If these projections were come to fruition, we will reach our high-water mark of 784 in 2022-2023. However, an attempt has been made to account for residential enrollment growth. Under this scenario, I have anticipated 106 households between the Upper Ridges and Twin Oaks development with 1.9 children per household. Applying that in an even distribution method would suggest enrollment figures of 954 in 2026-2027. Nonetheless, this projection should be viewed critically for multiple reasons, and again it is important to point out the unknown is not insignificant. 

To view the complete analysis of both our historical enrollment and projections out for the next five years, please click here.