A Looming Teacher Shortage?

Teachers participate in professional development led by
Hudson instructional coach.

Last week while at a superintendent meeting we began to discuss teacher recruitment and the growing concern with finding quality applicants for some positions. Shortages in a variety of content areas have long been a challenge in Iowa schools. In fact, the Iowa Department of Education publishes a list of teacher shortages annually. And here at Hudson, we haven't been immune to the effects of teacher shortages in some disciplines. Our business education position was vacant for years prior to us finally being able to hire an outstanding teacher to fill this role. Then, of course, our challenge in finding an FCS (Family and Consumer Science) teacher has been well chronicled. We got incredibly lucky first semester this year when we were able to lure Mrs. Stanek out of retirement to help us out for the fall term. Then fate smiled on us, as Mr. Dieken, working in conjunction with our partners at North Tama were able to hire a December graduate who actually has all the requisite endorsements to permanently fill this position beginning in January. Hopefully this will, in fact, be a permanent placement and we will be able to hold onto this teacher come spring hiring season. 

The aforementioned positions come as no surprise to us, nor to any school district in Iowa. They have long been on the Department of Education's shortage area list. Further, this is exacerbated here because of the size of our high school. Full-time positions in these content areas aren't possible because the number of students we have enrolled doesn't warrant a full class load. Although with a projected increase in enrollment, this could soon change in Hudson. But, we are focused on the here and now. Luckily we have been able to collaborate with surrounding districts and create full-time positions out of part-time positions by sharing a teacher. However, if the pool of potential candidates is very small to begin with, it becomes quite challenging to attract someone to a position where they will have to travel between two districts. After all, why would you if you didn't have to? As school leaders, this can be frustrating. Nonetheless, it has been our 'modus operandi' for several years.

But there are signs that it could get much more challenging. When the teacher leadership and compensation system launched four years ago, teachers across all disciples and content areas began to assume positions as instructional coaches, curriculum leaders, professional development coordinators; the list goes on! The benefits of teacher leadership are countless, but at the same time, this created numerous teaching positions that needed to be filled in classrooms all around the state. The first ripple in the pond was a shortage in substitute teachers. I began to hear from colleagues they were having problems finding substitutes. Why? Well, those who had previously been substitute teachers began to fill the void of classroom teachers. 

Then in Western Iowa, superintendents began to report a shortage in elementary teachers. When hearing this, I was very surprised. I often have commented that in Hudson, we merely have to think that an elementary teaching position may be opening soon; and then find ourselves with numerous applicants. Now, I do believe that geography has a lot to do with our ability to find teaching candidates, but I am savvy enough to know that what happens in Western Iowa will ultimately impact our part of the state. In that same superintendent meeting last week, a colleague from not very far away from here turned to our table and stated, "We had an elementary teaching position open and only had three applicants. Two of them were 'unhireable'."

Much of this is because students entering teacher preparation programs are down. Consider this: in the mid-'90s the University of Northen Iowa was preparing roughly 600 teachers annually. Over the last 8-10 years, that number has dropped to 450. Of all the traditional teacher prep programs in Iowa, public universities have dropped by 4% in recent years while private institutions have seen a decrease of 2%. It should also be noted that this isn't just an Iowa problem. If the current trends continue, by 2025 we could see a nationwide shortage of teachers approaching 100,000.

Mobility is an issue as well in Iowa. Once we get them here, we need to keep them here! Around 6.7% of teachers change schools each year and 18.9% change schools in a five-year span. So for us, it is not only about attracting talent, but it is about retaining those teachers once we have them in our classrooms. Next week we'll talk about steps we are taking to mitigate this potential shortage and make certain we continue to employ very high-quality educators.

Planning Our Future

Based on known variables and algorithms, we are able to project and defend what we believe enrollment will look like five years from now. However, the unknown variables really are the head-scratcher here, aren't they? The biggest of which is the impact residential development will have on future class sizes. While I have no crystal ball or formula with which to base my analysis, all we can really do is speculate. So, what may that look like?

Where I live, there are approximately 26 lots under development. Then there is the apartment complex on Springfield Avenue which is projected to have around 48 units. If we add Twin Oaks into the mix, that would be another 67 households. How many school-age children? As a start, is it appropriate to assume one school-age child per home? Considering some families may have as many as 3 or 4 while others may have 0, 1 per household seems like a good place to start. So for easy math, let's assume an additional 141 students.

Now, what becomes really challenging is trying to figure out when these phantom students may materialize and at what grade levels. According to known variables, enrollment in the next five years should peak at 747 in the 2020-2021 academic year. Again, that is before assuming the residential growth that is currently underway. If we add our mystery 141, that could put enrollment as high as 888. Remember though, this is all speculative and becomes even further complicated when trying to determine what grade levels will be impacted and by how much. But for the sake of argument, we'll consider an equal distribution of pupils which would put our average class size around 68 students. At this size, our elementary school would need to be equipped to handle three sections of each grade level with approximately 23 students each. Or four sections at 17.


Good news. Right now, we are operating a 3 section elementary with the exception of one grade level that has 2 sections. Suffice to say, I believe if we had an enrollment increase in excess of 100 students we would be able to absorb this without too much trouble. However, there are some statisticians that suggest new residential development should assume 1.5 children per household, which could very easily put us in the 4 section category. Using the same math from above, this would give us an average class size of 74 students.

I'll bet you are wondering if our current facility can accommodate a 4 section elementary. I contend that it can, but we will have to get creative with how we utilize our space. Right now, we are very generous with the allocation of instructional space. If enrollment goes where we think it could go in the future, we will need to rethink how our spaces are used.

The good news is that we are thinking about it. Right now, you are aware that we are renovating the elementary school and just recently completed phase one of that project. Planning for phase 2 is underway. The scope of that project includes the North wing of the elementary, which is where the 4th and 5th grade is currently housed. If you are unfamiliar with this section of the building, it is the wing directly to the left in the photo above. The scope of this work includes new lighting, ceilings, windows, and air conditioning. We had plans to tackle the second floor of the facility with part of this phase as well, but some mechanical issues were uncovered that forced us to reevaluate our plans. The current scope of this project is slated for board approval in November with a tentative bid letting scheduled for December.

It is entirely likely and conceivable that we will commission our architect to begin a study this winter and consider what it would look like, and what it would cost to convert our building from a three section to a four section elementary. At the same time, we will need to be engaged with our legislators who will be meeting in Des Moines and ask them to consider the elimination of the sunset on the SAVE fund. I'll remind you, this was one of the priorities the Board of Directors outlined in their legislative platform this past summer. It may seem like a long time off yet, but with a 2029 sunset on this fund, it significantly impacts our ability to move some of these projects forward.

While I haven't spent much time talking about the high school, that is not to mean there aren't needs in that facility. If you have any experience with that building, you are aware that we have begun the process of replacing the roofs, and are beginning to plan for updating the mechanical systems. But in terms of space? Assuming we did have an increase in enrollment and average class sizes approaching the mid-70s, it is helpful to take a look at our enrollment history. In the 2006-2007 school year, the average class size in the high school was 73.5.

Well, I'm not sure our gazing into a crystal ball has yielded many answers. All I know for sure is that it's a good time to be a Pirate and that whatever happens with enrollment, we'll be ready.